Arbeitspapier

The (pro-)cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: New evidence

Data from member states' Stability and Convergence Programmes from 2011 to 2018 are used to assess the cyclicality of government consumption in the EU after the European Semester took effect. Econometric estimations, which address endogeneity issues, find the intended (ex-ante) fiscal policy to be pro-cyclical in nature. Government consumption is also found to be pro-cyclical ex-post but to a much lesser extent than ex-ante. This appears to be largely owing to a forecasting bias on the part of official forecasters occurring, despite the purported improvements to EU member states' surveillance and forecasting mechanisms that have been put in place in recent years to address such bias.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 683

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Fiscal Policy
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Thema
Cyclicality of fiscal policy
forecasting bias
European Semester

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Cronin, David
McQuinn, Kieran
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
(wo)
Dublin
(wann)
2020

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Cronin, David
  • McQuinn, Kieran
  • The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Entstanden

  • 2020

Ähnliche Objekte (12)