Arbeitspapier
The (pro-)cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: New evidence
Data from member states' Stability and Convergence Programmes from 2011 to 2018 are used to assess the cyclicality of government consumption in the EU after the European Semester took effect. Econometric estimations, which address endogeneity issues, find the intended (ex-ante) fiscal policy to be pro-cyclical in nature. Government consumption is also found to be pro-cyclical ex-post but to a much lesser extent than ex-ante. This appears to be largely owing to a forecasting bias on the part of official forecasters occurring, despite the purported improvements to EU member states' surveillance and forecasting mechanisms that have been put in place in recent years to address such bias.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 683
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Fiscal Policy
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- Thema
-
Cyclicality of fiscal policy
forecasting bias
European Semester
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Cronin, David
McQuinn, Kieran
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
- (wo)
-
Dublin
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Cronin, David
- McQuinn, Kieran
- The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Entstanden
- 2020
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