Arbeitspapier
Inference on counterfactual distributions
We develop inference procedures for policy analysis based on regression methods. We consider policy interventions that correspond to either changes in the distribution of covariates, or changes in the conditional distribution of the outcome given covariates, or both. Under either of these policy scenarios, we derive functional central limit theorems for regression-based estimators of the status quo and counterfactual marginal distributions. This result allows us to construct simultaneous confidence sets for function-valued policy effects, including the effects on the marginal distribution function, quantile function, and other related functionals. We use these confidence sets to test functional hypotheses such as no-effect, positive effect, or stochastic dominance. Our theory applies to general policy interventions and covers the main regression methods including classical, quantile, duration, and distribution regressions. We illustrate the results with an empirical application on wage decompositions using data for the United States. Of independent interest is the use of distribution regression as a tool for modeling the entire conditional distribution, encompassing duration/transformation regression, and representing an alternative to quantile regression.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: cemmap working paper ; No. CWP05/12
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
policy effects
counterfactual distribution
quantile regression
distribution regression
duration/transformation regression
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Chernozhukov, Victor
Fernández-Val, Iván
Melly, Blaise
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (cemmap)
- (wo)
-
London
- (wann)
-
2012
- DOI
-
doi:10.1920/wp.cem.2012.0512
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Chernozhukov, Victor
- Fernández-Val, Iván
- Melly, Blaise
- Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (cemmap)
Entstanden
- 2012
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