Arbeitspapier
The macroeconomic impact of recent political conflicts in Africa: Generalized synthetic counterfactual evidence
This paper measures the macroeconomic impact of recent political crisis, protest and uprisings in Africa with the generalized synthetic control method and evaluates the role played by natural resource dependence on the modulation of the impact. We find that political crisis, protests and uprisings have a significant and negative impact on economic growth while the impact is positive on investment and price level. For economic growth, the deviation of the actual series from the counterfactual is negative, instantaneous, persistent and highly significant; indicating non-negligible costs of the shock. Indeed, dependence on natural resources amplifies the negative effect of political crisis, protests and uprisings on GDP. Finally, the more the treated country depends on natural resources, the more it becomes resilient from the investment losses caused by political crisis.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: AGDI Working Paper ; No. WP/21/060
Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
National Security; Economic Nationalism
Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
Economywide Country Studies: Africa
Capitalist Systems: Political Economy
National Security; Economic Nationalism
Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
Economywide Country Studies: Africa
Capitalist Systems: Political Economy
Thema
political conflicts
economic growth
Africa
economic growth
Africa
Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Diop, Samba
Asongu, Simplice
Tchamyou, Vanessa
Asongu, Simplice
Tchamyou, Vanessa
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
(wo)
Yaoundé
(wann)
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Diop, Samba
- Asongu, Simplice
- Tchamyou, Vanessa
- African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
Entstanden
- 2021
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