Contingent belief updating

Arbeitspapier

We study how contingent thinking - that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized - affects belief updating. According to the Bayesian benchmark, beliefs updated after exposure to new information should be equivalent to beliefs assessed for the contingency of receiving such information. Using an experiment, we decompose the effect of contingent thinking on belief updating into two components: (1) hypothetical thinking (updating on a piece of not-yet-observed information) and (2) contrast reasoning (comparing multiple contingencies during the updating process). Our results show that contingent thinking increases deviations from Bayesian updating and that this effect can be attributed to hypothetical thinking.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECONtribute Discussion Paper ; No. 263

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡
• Thema: Belief Updating ; Contingent Thinking ; Experiment

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Aina, Chiara ; Amelio, Andrea ; Brütt, Katharina
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)
• (wo): Bonn and Cologne
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/283305
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ