Journal article | Zeitschriftenartikel
Triple Duel: The Impact of Coalition Fragmentation and Three-Corner Fights on the 2018 Malaysian Election
Malaysia's previously hegemonic Barisan Nasional (BN) government was unexpectedly defeated in the 2018 general election despite a fragmented opposition and widespread three-corner fights that theory states should inhibit turnover. Why? We argue that the opposition-split hypothesis rests on three core assumptions: third parties split only the anti-incumbent vote; coalition/party support is relatively uniform across the country; and opposition parties are not "elite splits" in disguise. The Malaysian context challenges all three of these assumptions. Counterfactual election simulations ultimately suggest that the opposition split neither dramatically helped nor hurt the BN. While this does not upend conventional wisdom on opposition coordination, it does demonstrate that the theory manifests only when its assumptions accord with local realities. More substantively, our analysis also provides insights into why the new opposition will likely seek to increase the salience of ethno-religious issues in a bid to recapture electoral ground.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Umfang
-
Seite(n): 31-55
- ISSN
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1868-4882
- Anmerkungen
-
Status: Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
- Erschienen in
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Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 37(3)
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Malaysia
Parlamentswahl
Wahlergebnis
politischer Wandel
Demokratisierung
Opposition
Koalition
Islam
Südostasien
Schuler, Paul
Chong, Jie Ming
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:gbv:18-4-11478
- Rechteinformation
-
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. Bibliothek Köln
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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21.06.2024, 16:27 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Zeitschriftenartikel
Beteiligte
- Ostwald, Kai
- Schuler, Paul
- Chong, Jie Ming
Entstanden
- 2018
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