Arbeitspapier
Forecasting the Volatility of Nikkei 225 Futures
For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and long memory, using high frequency data for the underlying asset. Empirical results for Nikkei 225 futures indicate that the adjusted R2 supports the appropriateness of the indirect method, and that the new method based on stochastic volatility models with the asymmetry and long memory outperforms the forecasting model based on the direct method using the pseudo long time series.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 17-017/III
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Financial Econometrics
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- Thema
-
Forecasting
Volatility
Futures
Realized Volatility
Realized Kernel
Leverage Effects
Long Memory.
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Asai, Manabu
McAleer, Michael
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Asai, Manabu
- McAleer, Michael
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2017
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