Arbeitspapier
Strategic uncertainty and probabilistic sophistication
This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects' assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects' matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: ISER Discussion Paper ; No. 1117
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡
- Thema
-
matching probability
ambiguity
uncertainty
coordination
conjunction
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Aoyagi, Masaki
Masuda, Takehito
Nishimura, Naoko
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
- (wo)
-
Osaka
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Aoyagi, Masaki
- Masuda, Takehito
- Nishimura, Naoko
- Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
Entstanden
- 2021