Arbeitspapier

Strategic uncertainty and probabilistic sophistication

This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects' assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects' matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ISER Discussion Paper ; No. 1117

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡
Thema
matching probability
ambiguity
uncertainty
coordination
conjunction

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Aoyagi, Masaki
Masuda, Takehito
Nishimura, Naoko
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
(wo)
Osaka
(wann)
2021

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Aoyagi, Masaki
  • Masuda, Takehito
  • Nishimura, Naoko
  • Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)

Entstanden

  • 2021

Ähnliche Objekte (12)