Arbeitspapier
Sovereign Risk, Elections, and Contagion
This paper aims to quantify the political risk effect and its different economic implications in normal and crisis situations through the proxy analysis of election and the sovereign bond spreads. Our study leads to three main findings. First, in normal economic situations, elections and government turnovers expand bond spreads, demonstrating investors' concern over the possibility of government policies or instability brought by the election. During a crisis, however, investors prefer change, indicating hope in new policies ameliorate public finances. Second, due to the prolonged eurozone sovereign debt crisis, elections in European countries have stronger contagion effects in their own region during a global slowdown period than a normal period. However, their effect does not carry over globally after the 2008 financial crisis. Third, results show that the election induced peak shrinks from 3 months before and after the election date to 1–2 months when the economic situation turns from normal to a downgraded period.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ADB Economics Working Paper Series ; No. 348
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
International Lending and Debt Problems
Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Economywide Country Studies: Europe
- Thema
-
election
sovereign bond
contagion
financial crisis
Europe
Asia
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Li, Chi
Balding, Christopher
Lee, Minsoo
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
- (wo)
-
Manila
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Li, Chi
- Balding, Christopher
- Lee, Minsoo
- Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Entstanden
- 2013