Artikel
Testing ambiguity theories with a mean-preserving design
Prominent models such as maxmin expected utility/alpha-multiprior (MEU/ a -MP) and Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (KMM) interpret ambiguity aversion as aversion against second-order risks associated with ambiguous acts. We design an experiment where the decision maker draws twice with replacement in the typical Ellsberg two-color urns, but with a different color winning each time. Given this set of mean-preserving prospects, MEU/α‐MP, KMM, and Savage's subjective expected utility all predict unequivocally that risk-averse decision makers (DMs) will avoid the 50 - 50 urn that exhibits the highest risk conceivable, while risk-seeking DMs do the opposite. However, we observe a substantial number of violations in the experiments. It appears that the ambiguity premium is partially paid to avoid the ambiguity issue per se, which is distinct from notions of second- order risk. This finding is robust even when there is only partial ambiguity, and is applicable to all models that satisfy a monotonicity condition.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Journal: Quantitative Economics ; ISSN: 1759-7331 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2017 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 219-238 ; New Haven, CT: The Econometric Society
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Thema
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Ambiguity
Ellsberg paradox
expected utility
experiment
mean preserving
monotonicity
partial ambiguity
second-order risk
source premium
- Ereignis
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
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Yang, Chun-Lei
Yao, Lan
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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The Econometric Society
- (wo)
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New Haven, CT
- (wann)
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2017
- DOI
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doi:10.3982/QE460
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Yang, Chun-Lei
- Yao, Lan
- The Econometric Society
Entstanden
- 2017