Artikel

Testing ambiguity theories with a mean-preserving design

Prominent models such as maxmin expected utility/alpha-multiprior (MEU/ a -MP) and Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (KMM) interpret ambiguity aversion as aversion against second-order risks associated with ambiguous acts. We design an experiment where the decision maker draws twice with replacement in the typical Ellsberg two-color urns, but with a different color winning each time. Given this set of mean-preserving prospects, MEU/α‐MP, KMM, and Savage's subjective expected utility all predict unequivocally that risk-averse decision makers (DMs) will avoid the 50 - 50 urn that exhibits the highest risk conceivable, while risk-seeking DMs do the opposite. However, we observe a substantial number of violations in the experiments. It appears that the ambiguity premium is partially paid to avoid the ambiguity issue per se, which is distinct from notions of second- order risk. This finding is robust even when there is only partial ambiguity, and is applicable to all models that satisfy a monotonicity condition.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: Quantitative Economics ; ISSN: 1759-7331 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2017 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 219-238 ; New Haven, CT: The Econometric Society

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Thema
Ambiguity
Ellsberg paradox
expected utility
experiment
mean preserving
monotonicity
partial ambiguity
second-order risk
source premium

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Yang, Chun-Lei
Yao, Lan
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
The Econometric Society
(wo)
New Haven, CT
(wann)
2017

DOI
doi:10.3982/QE460
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Yang, Chun-Lei
  • Yao, Lan
  • The Econometric Society

Entstanden

  • 2017

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