Arbeitspapier
Leading indicators of Euroland business cycles
The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to Euroland data. We use frequency domain analysis, Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only a few indicators pass all tests, while the non-monetary indicators perform best.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 238
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Konjunkturindikator
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
Statistischer Test
Schätzung
EU-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Fritsche, Ulrich
Marklein, Felix
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2001
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Fritsche, Ulrich
- Marklein, Felix
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Entstanden
- 2001
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