Arbeitspapier

Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation: Empirical evidence for euro area countries

This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural rate including those flows explicitly. It is shown that adding this measure indeed changes the estimated natural rate and thus the degree of evidence of secular stagnation in various countries. It is found that the natural rate tends to decrease in countries with safe haven inflows and increases in countries with safe haven outflows.

Sprache
Englisch
ISBN
978-3-86788-964-3

Erschienen in
Series: Ruhr Economic Papers ; No. 831

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Thema
safe haven
portfolio flows
natural interest rate
secular stagnation
Euro area member countries

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Belke, Ansgar
Klose, Jens
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
(wo)
Essen
(wann)
2019

DOI
doi:10.4419/86788964
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Klose, Jens
  • RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

Entstanden

  • 2019

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