Arbeitspapier
Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany : An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters. The dispersion of forecasts correlates positively with the volatility of macroeconomic variables. This suggests that forecasters do not behave predominately strategically, but rather share no common belief on the adequate model of the economy.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 399
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- Subject
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Forecast error evaluation
consensus forecast
disagreement
uncertainty
Germany
Konjunkturprognose
Inflation
Prognoseverfahren
Bias
Risiko
Deutschland
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Fritsche, Ulrich
Döpke, Jörg
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (where)
-
Berlin
- (when)
-
2004
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Fritsche, Ulrich
- Döpke, Jörg
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Time of origin
- 2004
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Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees
Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts
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Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function
Forecast errors and the macroeconomy: a non-linear relationship?
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Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters
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Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts
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