Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach

Arbeitspapier

We combine a standard stock-flow housing market model, incorporating explicit relationships between house prices, the housing stock, and the rent level, with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors, reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules. The model results in a two-dimensional discrete-time nonlinear dynamical system. Based on realistic parameters, the model is able to generate endogenous boom-bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding. We thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces, in particular supply conditions, interact with expectations-driven housing market fluctuations.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch
• ISBN: 978-3-943153-16-3

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: BERG Working Paper Series ; No. 99

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Expectations; Speculations ; Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Housing Demand ; Housing Supply and Markets
• Thema: Housing markets ; Speculation ; Housing supply ; Boom-bust cycles ; Nonlinear dynamics

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Dieci, Roberto ; Westerhoff, Frank
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG)
• (wo): Bamberg
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/110367
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ