Arbeitspapier
Self-Serving Biases in Beliefs about Collective Outcomes
Beliefs about collective outcomes, such as economic growth or firm profitability, play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we explore whether over-optimism and self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs about individual outcomes—affect beliefs about collective outcomes. We find that people indeed exhibit self-serving biases for collective outcomes, and that such biases are similar to biases for individual outcomes. In addition, we investigate whether collective self-delusion is mitigated by market institutions. If anything, biases in information processing are more pronounced in the presence of a market.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8975
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Field Experiments
Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
- Thema
-
beliefs
Bayes’ rule
asymmetric updating
overconfidence
motivated reasoning
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kogan, Shimon
Schneider, Florian H.
Weber, Roberto A.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kogan, Shimon
- Schneider, Florian H.
- Weber, Roberto A.
- Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2021
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