Arbeitspapier

Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation

We develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities, without model structure.We derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects under noncompliance and dynamic selection, exploiting instrumental variation taking place during ongoing spells. We derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding estimators. This includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context. In an empirical application, we evaluate the French labor market policy reform PARE which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market policy measures. The estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration of unemployment duration is positive and significant. Neglecting selectivity leads to an underestimation of the effects in absolute terms.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Working Paper Series ; No. 16-02

Classification
Wirtschaft
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
Subject
hazard rate
duration variable
treatment effects
survival function
noncompliance
regression discontinuity design
unemployment
labor market policy reform
active labor market policy
unemployment benefits

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
van den Berg, Gerard J.
Bonev, Petyo
Mammen, Enno
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
University of Mannheim, Department of Economics
(where)
Mannheim
(when)
2016

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-402136
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • van den Berg, Gerard J.
  • Bonev, Petyo
  • Mammen, Enno
  • University of Mannheim, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2016

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