Arbeitspapier
Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
978-3-86558-584-4
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2009,32
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Expectations; Speculations
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
- Thema
-
Oil price
survey data
forecast bias
peso problem
Erdölpreis
Sachverständige
Erwartungstheorie
Prognose
Bias
Extremwertanalyse
Welt
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Reitz, Stefan
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Stadtmann, Georg
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Reitz, Stefan
- Rülke, Jan-Christoph
- Stadtmann, Georg
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2009
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