Arbeitspapier

Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts

In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the past 10 years. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures reveals that the accuracy of the 2-years forecasts is low relative to a simple na?ve forecast. This observation can mainly be explained by a systematic overestimation of the growth rates by the forecasters. Moreover, the lack of accuracy can also be explained partly by insufficient information efficiency as well as imitation behaviour. Finally, it is shown that notwithstanding the common errors which affected the accuracy of all forecasters mainly because of their systematic overestimation, they differ significantly in their forecast accuracy.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ZEW Discussion Papers ; No. 06-087

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Thema
business cycle forecasting
forecast evaluation
Consensus forecasts

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Osterloh, Steffen
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
(wo)
Mannheim
(wann)
2006

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Osterloh, Steffen
  • Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)

Entstanden

  • 2006

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