Arbeitspapier
Modest policy interventions
The authors present a framework for computing and evaluating linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention is a change in policy that does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not generate quantitatively important expectations-formation effects of the kind Lucas (1976) emphasizes. The framework is applied to an econometric model of U.S. postwar monetary policy behavior. It finds that a rich class of interventions routinely considered by the Federal Reserve are modest and their impacts can be reliably forecast by an accurately identified linear model. Moreover, modest interventions can matter: They may shift the projected paths and probability distributions of macro variables in economically meaningful ways.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2002-19
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Monetary policy
Forecasting
Vector autoregression
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Leeper, Eric M.
Zha, Tao
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- (wo)
-
Atlanta, GA
- (wann)
-
2002
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Leeper, Eric M.
- Zha, Tao
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Entstanden
- 2002
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