The behavioral economics of extreme event attribution

Arbeitspapier

Can Attribution Science, a method for quantifying - ex post - humanity's contribution to adverse climatic events, induce pro-environmental behavioral change? We conduct a conceptual test of this question by studying, in an online experiment with 3,031 participants, whether backwards-looking attribution affects future decisions, even when seemingly uninformative to a consequentialist decision-maker. By design, adverse events can arise as a result of participants' pursuit of higher payoffs (anthropogenic cause) or as a result of chance (natural cause). Treatments vary whether adverse events are causally attributable and whether attribution can be acquired at cost. We find that ex-post attributability is behaviorally relevant: Attribution to an anthropogenic cause reduces future anthropogenic stress and leads to fewer adverse events compared to no attributability and compared to attribution to a natural cause. Average willingness-to-pay for ex-post attribution is positive. The conjecture that Attribution Science can be behaviorally impactful and socially valuable has empirical merit.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: AWI Discussion Paper Series ; No. 741

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡ ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Design of Experiments: Other ; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡ ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Design of Experiments: Other
• Subject: Extreme event attribution ; attribution science ; behavioral change ; cause dependence ; online experiment

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Diekert, Florian ; Goeschl, Timo ; König-Kersting, Christian
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
• (where): Heidelberg
• (when): 2024

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.11588/heidok.00034341
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/283527
• URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-343416
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET