Arbeitspapier
Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?
A reason for revising the EU fiscal rules in the early 2010s was to improve member states' forecasts against a background of documented biases in official projections. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the new enhanced EU fiscal framework, with forecasts being irrational and a pessimistic bias. Recently highlighted obstacles to the way in which independent fiscal institutions operate in member states and the EU fiscal rules' emphasis on ex-ante fiscal plans may contribute to such forecasting performance.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 681
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Fiscal Policy
- Thema
-
Official forecasts
forecasting bias
EU fiscal rules
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Cronin, David
McQuinn, Kieran
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
- (wo)
-
Dublin
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Cronin, David
- McQuinn, Kieran
- The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Entstanden
- 2020
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