Arbeitspapier

Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?

A reason for revising the EU fiscal rules in the early 2010s was to improve member states' forecasts against a background of documented biases in official projections. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the new enhanced EU fiscal framework, with forecasts being irrational and a pessimistic bias. Recently highlighted obstacles to the way in which independent fiscal institutions operate in member states and the EU fiscal rules' emphasis on ex-ante fiscal plans may contribute to such forecasting performance.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 681

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Fiscal Policy
Thema
Official forecasts
forecasting bias
EU fiscal rules

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Cronin, David
McQuinn, Kieran
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
(wo)
Dublin
(wann)
2020

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Cronin, David
  • McQuinn, Kieran
  • The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Entstanden

  • 2020

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