Arbeitspapier
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. At the longer forecast horizons, multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
82-7553-347-3
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2006/2
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Phillips curve
output gap
forecast
forecast combination
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Bjørnland, Hilde C.
Brubakk, Leif
Jore, Anne Sofie
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2006
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Bjørnland, Hilde C.
- Brubakk, Leif
- Jore, Anne Sofie
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2006
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