Arbeitspapier
Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator
This paper analyzes the real-time out-of-sample performance of three kinds of combination schemes. While for each the set of underlying forecasts is slightly modified, all of them are real-time recession probability forecasts generated by a dynamic probit indicator. Among the considered aggregations the most efficient turns out to be one that neglects the correlations between the forecast errors.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IMK Working Paper ; No. 89
Prognoseverfahren
Probit-Modell
Theorie
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-201202285303
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:23 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Theobald, Thomas
- Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
Entstanden
- 2012