Arbeitspapier
Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends
In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators - the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
978-3-86788-175-3
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Ruhr Economic Papers ; No. 155
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Google Trends
private consumption
forecasting
Consumer Sentiment Indicator
Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum
Prognoseverfahren
Konsumklima
Internet-Portal
Suchmaschine
Vergleich
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Schmidt, Torsten
Vosen, Simeon
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
- (wo)
-
Essen
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Schmidt, Torsten
- Vosen, Simeon
- Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
Entstanden
- 2009
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