Arbeitspapier

On the (nonlinear) relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade: An investigation of US trade figures in the Group of Seven

In this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated in terms of fitting and ex ante forecasting. The overall impact of exchange rate variations on trade growth is found to be weak. In periods of large exchange rate variations, trade growth forecasts gain from conditioning on volatility. Empirical results support the view that the relationship of interest might be nonlinear and, moreover, lacks homogeneity across countries and imports vs. exports

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: SFB 373 Discussion Paper ; No. 2003,2

Classification
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Foreign Exchange
Subject
Exchange rate volatility
international trade
ARCH
Group of Seven
forecasting
Wechselkurs
Volatilität
Aussenwirtschaft
Zeitreihenanalyse
ARCH-Modell
Nichtparametrisches Verfahren
Schätzung
Vereinigte Staaten
G7-Staaten

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Herwartz, Helmut
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
(where)
Berlin
(when)
2003

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10049730
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes

Time of origin

  • 2003

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