Arbeitspapier
On the (nonlinear) relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade: An investigation of US trade figures in the Group of Seven
In this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated in terms of fitting and ex ante forecasting. The overall impact of exchange rate variations on trade growth is found to be weak. In periods of large exchange rate variations, trade growth forecasts gain from conditioning on volatility. Empirical results support the view that the relationship of interest might be nonlinear and, moreover, lacks homogeneity across countries and imports vs. exports
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: SFB 373 Discussion Paper ; No. 2003,2
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Foreign Exchange
- Thema
-
Exchange rate volatility
international trade
ARCH
Group of Seven
forecasting
Wechselkurs
Volatilität
Aussenwirtschaft
Zeitreihenanalyse
ARCH-Modell
Nichtparametrisches Verfahren
Schätzung
Vereinigte Staaten
G7-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Herwartz, Helmut
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2003
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10049730
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Herwartz, Helmut
- Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
Entstanden
- 2003
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