Arbeitspapier

The spread of COVID-19 in Germany: An application of the SIRDH model

The paper studies the current COVID-19 pandemic by applying an adapted epidemiologic model, where each individual is in one of the five states 'susceptible', 'infected', 'removed', 'immune healthy' or 'dead'. We extend the basic model with time-invariant transition rates between these states by allowing for time-dependent infection rates as a consequence of lockdowns and social distancing policies as well as for time-dependent mortality rates as a result of changing infection patterns. Our model proves to be appropriate to calibrate and simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Germany between January and October 2020. We provide deeper insights about some key indicators such as the reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the development of the infection and mortality rates.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics ; No. 139

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Health Behavior
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Thema
COVID-19
SIRDH model
health behavior

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Landsgesell, Lukas
Stadler, Manfred
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
University of Tübingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences
(wo)
Tübingen
(wann)
2020

DOI
doi:10.15496/publikation-51021
Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:bsz:21-dspace-1096453
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Landsgesell, Lukas
  • Stadler, Manfred
  • University of Tübingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences

Entstanden

  • 2020

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