Arbeitspapier
War signals: A theory of trade, trust and conflict
We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, accidental conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 13
Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
civil war
conflict
cultural transmission
ethnic fractionalization
human capital investments
learning
matching
peacekeeping
stochastic war
strategic complementarity
trade
Ethnische Beziehungen
Handel
Vertrauen
Konflikt
Bürgerkrieg
Welt
Thoenig, Mathias
Zilibotti, Fabrizio
- DOI
-
doi:10.5167/uzh-51517
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
12.07.2024, 13:21 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Rohner, Dominic
- Thoenig, Mathias
- Zilibotti, Fabrizio
- University of Zurich, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2011
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Seeds of distrust: Conflict in Uganda
Rearranging the desk chairs: A large randomized field experiment on the effects of close contact on interethnic relations
Some considerations on China's minorities in the 21st century: Conflict or conciliation?
Mistaking Noise for Bias - Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa
Trade, Insecurity, and the Costs of Conflict
The Geography of Natural Resources, Ethnic Inequality and Development
Ethnic fragmentation, conflict, displaced persons and human trafficking: An empirical analysis
Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia
Diversity and conflict
Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: Evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach
Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria
Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria
Seeds of distrust: Conflict in Uganda
Rearranging the desk chairs: A large randomized field experiment on the effects of close contact on interethnic relations
Some considerations on China's minorities in the 21st century: Conflict or conciliation?
Mistaking Noise for Bias - Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa
Trade, Insecurity, and the Costs of Conflict
The Geography of Natural Resources, Ethnic Inequality and Development
Ethnic fragmentation, conflict, displaced persons and human trafficking: An empirical analysis
Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia
Diversity and conflict
Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: Evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach
Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria
Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria
Seeds of distrust: Conflict in Uganda
Rearranging the desk chairs: A large randomized field experiment on the effects of close contact on interethnic relations
Some considerations on China's minorities in the 21st century: Conflict or conciliation?
Mistaking Noise for Bias - Victimhood and Hutu-Tutsi Reconciliation in East Africa
Trade, Insecurity, and the Costs of Conflict
The Geography of Natural Resources, Ethnic Inequality and Development
Ethnic fragmentation, conflict, displaced persons and human trafficking: An empirical analysis
Inter-ethnic Fertility Spillovers and the Role of Forward-looking Behavior: Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia
Diversity and conflict
Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: Evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach
Ethnic Divisions and the Onset of Civil Wars in Syria