Arbeitspapier
Short-term decisions under long-term uncertainty
The behaviour of future policy-makers substantially influences future greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty about the motives of future policy-makers may thus strongly influence the climate policy strategies of current policy-makers. Analytical and numerical analyses in this paper confirm this hypothesis. If current policy-makers want to constrain emissions accumulated over a prolonged period of time, and if future policy-makers tend, with a certain chance, to a less ambitious climate policy, then current policy-makers should intensify their efforts to reduce emissions and the costs of emission reduction. In this setting, if current policy-makers want to meet a cumulative emission constraint in expectation, then the preferred policy trajectory does not qualitatively deviate from one suggested by a standard cost-effective trajectory. If, however, the constraint is to be met with a certain probability, then the importance of early action is enhanced relative to that of postponed action. Costs substantially increase if current policy-makers want to set long-term goals without the full co-operation of future policy-makers.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 90.1997
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
Energy: General
- Thema
-
Greenhouse gas emission reduction
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Uncertainty
Immissionsschutz
Luftverschmutzung
Klimawandel
Risiko
Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse
Theorie
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Tol, Richard S. J.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
- (wo)
-
Milano
- (wann)
-
1997
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Tol, Richard S. J.
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Entstanden
- 1997
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