Short-term decisions under long-term uncertainty

Arbeitspapier

The behaviour of future policy-makers substantially influences future greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty about the motives of future policy-makers may thus strongly influence the climate policy strategies of current policy-makers. Analytical and numerical analyses in this paper confirm this hypothesis. If current policy-makers want to constrain emissions accumulated over a prolonged period of time, and if future policy-makers tend, with a certain chance, to a less ambitious climate policy, then current policy-makers should intensify their efforts to reduce emissions and the costs of emission reduction. In this setting, if current policy-makers want to meet a cumulative emission constraint in expectation, then the preferred policy trajectory does not qualitatively deviate from one suggested by a standard cost-effective trajectory. If, however, the constraint is to be met with a certain probability, then the importance of early action is enhanced relative to that of postponed action. Costs substantially increase if current policy-makers want to set long-term goals without the full co-operation of future policy-makers.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 90.1997

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General ; Energy: General
• Subject: Greenhouse gas emission reduction ; Cost-effectiveness analysis ; Uncertainty ; Immissionsschutz ; Luftverschmutzung ; Klimawandel ; Risiko ; Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse ; Theorie

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Tol, Richard S. J.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
• (where): Milano
• (when): 1997

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154852
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET